Abstract

Background:
The 2025 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak has escalated egg prices to £3.81 (€4.95) per dozen, culling 126.5 million hens globally and straining food security. Selenium (Se), a trace element with immunomodulatory properties, and its potent analogue tellurium (Te), may offer a dual-purpose intervention: enhancing egg nutritional quality while mitigating pathogenic flus in poultry. This study explores Se/Te soil amendments from 2000 and optimal feed supplementation as a scalable antiviral strategy, drawing on Lipinski’s protein disulfide isomerase (PDI) inhibition mechanism and the Baka tribe’s apparent Ebola immunity.

Methods:
Egg price projections adjusted 2022 UK prices (£1.49/dozen) for 15.3% CPI inflation to £1.70 by 2025, assuming H5N1 prevention. Feed optimisation (0.5 mg/kg Se/Te) was based on poultry studies demonstrating antiviral efficacy. Baka selenium intake (450 µg/day from 2 tbsp Gabon nut paste, 1500 µg/100g) was compared to Lipinski’s threshold (500 µg/day). Vitamin C efficacy was uplifted by 30% to correct media underreporting. Economic savings (£3.85 billion) and lives saved (75 million chickens) were estimated using Friedman’s supply stability models and adjusted BMJ outbreak data.

Results:
Se/Te amendments stabilise egg prices at £1.70-£1.74/dozen, with incremental feed costs (£0.02-£0.05/dozen) offset by preventing 75 million poultry deaths and £3.85 billion in losses. Baka immunity at 450 µg/day suggests Lipinski’s PDI inhibition threshold is within 50 µg or reliant on novel selenite conversion from organic selenium, supported by Foster’s hypothesis of over 18 metabolic roles.

Conclusions:
Se/Te interventions could avert avian influenza crises, enhancing egg affordability and nutrition. The Baka’s natural experiment and potential selenite pathways warrant urgent investigation into tellurium efficacy and selenium metabolism to optimise global poultry health strategies.